{"id":4485,"date":"2023-05-16T08:12:59","date_gmt":"2023-05-16T08:12:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/isipta23.sipta.org\/?page_id=4485"},"modified":"2023-07-14T11:28:38","modified_gmt":"2023-07-14T11:28:38","slug":"long-molinari","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/isipta23.sipta.org\/accepted-papers\/long-molinari\/","title":{"rendered":"Long Molinari"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"4485\" class=\"elementor elementor-4485\" data-elementor-post-type=\"page\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section data-eae-particle=\"{\n  &quot;particles&quot;: {\n    &quot;number&quot;: {\n      &quot;value&quot;: 80,\n      &quot;density&quot;: {\n        &quot;enable&quot;: true,\n        &quot;value_area&quot;: 800\n      }\n    },\n    &quot;color&quot;: {\n      &quot;value&quot;: &quot;#ffffff&quot;\n    },\n    &quot;shape&quot;: {\n      &quot;type&quot;: &quot;circle&quot;,\n      &quot;stroke&quot;: {\n        &quot;width&quot;: 0,\n        &quot;color&quot;: &quot;#000000&quot;\n      },\n      &quot;polygon&quot;: {\n        &quot;nb_sides&quot;: 5\n      },\n      &quot;image&quot;: {\n        &quot;src&quot;: &quot;img\/github.svg&quot;,\n        &quot;width&quot;: 100,\n        &quot;height&quot;: 100\n      }\n    },\n    &quot;opacity&quot;: {\n      &quot;value&quot;: 0.5,\n      &quot;random&quot;: false,\n      &quot;anim&quot;: {\n        &quot;enable&quot;: false,\n        &quot;speed&quot;: 1,\n        &quot;opacity_min&quot;: 0.1,\n        &quot;sync&quot;: false\n      }\n    },\n    &quot;size&quot;: {\n      &quot;value&quot;: 3,\n      &quot;random&quot;: true,\n      &quot;anim&quot;: {\n        &quot;enable&quot;: false,\n        &quot;speed&quot;: 40,\n        &quot;size_min&quot;: 0.1,\n        &quot;sync&quot;: false\n      }\n    },\n    &quot;line_linked&quot;: {\n      &quot;enable&quot;: true,\n      &quot;distance&quot;: 150,\n      &quot;color&quot;: &quot;#ffffff&quot;,\n      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data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;shape_divider_bottom&quot;:&quot;wave-brush&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-background-overlay\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-shape elementor-shape-bottom\" data-negative=\"false\">\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 283.5 27.8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\">\n\t<path class=\"elementor-shape-fill\" d=\"M283.5,9.7c0,0-7.3,4.3-14,4.6c-6.8,0.3-12.6,0-20.9-1.5c-11.3-2-33.1-10.1-44.7-5.7\ts-12.1,4.6-18,7.4c-6.6,3.2-20,9.6-36.6,9.3C131.6,23.5,99.5,7.2,86.3,8c-1.4,0.1-6.6,0.8-10.5,2c-3.8,1.2-9.4,3.8-17,4.7\tc-3.2,0.4-8.3,1.1-14.2,0.9c-1.5-0.1-6.3-0.4-12-1.6c-5.7-1.2-11-3.1-15.8-3.7C6.5,9.2,0,10.8,0,10.8V0h283.5V9.7z M260.8,11.3\tc-0.7-1-2-0.4-4.3-0.4c-2.3,0-6.1-1.2-5.8-1.1c0.3,0.1,3.1,1.5,6,1.9C259.7,12.2,261.4,12.3,260.8,11.3z 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elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cd1ef36 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"cd1ef36\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.16.0 - 20-09-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-image{text-align:center}.elementor-widget-image a{display:inline-block}.elementor-widget-image a img[src$=\".svg\"]{width:48px}.elementor-widget-image img{vertical-align:middle;display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"128\" src=\"https:\/\/isipta23.sipta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/LogoISIPTA23-long-white-1024x128.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-546\" alt=\"LogoISIPTA23-long-white\" srcset=\"https:\/\/isipta23.sipta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/LogoISIPTA23-long-white-1024x128.png 1024w, https:\/\/isipta23.sipta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/LogoISIPTA23-long-white-300x38.png 300w, https:\/\/isipta23.sipta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/LogoISIPTA23-long-white-768x96.png 768w, https:\/\/isipta23.sipta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/LogoISIPTA23-long-white.png 1284w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-017a3c3 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"017a3c3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.16.0 - 20-09-2023 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.elementor-divider__element{margin-right:0}.elementor-widget-divider:not(.elementor-widget-divider--view-line_text):not(.elementor-widget-divider--view-line_icon) .elementor-divider-separator{border-top:var(--divider-border-width) var(--divider-border-style) var(--divider-color)}.elementor-widget-divider--separator-type-pattern{--divider-border-style:none}.elementor-widget-divider--separator-type-pattern.elementor-widget-divider--view-line .elementor-divider-separator,.elementor-widget-divider--separator-type-pattern:not(.elementor-widget-divider--view-line) .elementor-divider-separator:after,.elementor-widget-divider--separator-type-pattern:not(.elementor-widget-divider--view-line) .elementor-divider-separator:before,.elementor-widget-divider--separator-type-pattern:not([class*=elementor-widget-divider--view]) .elementor-divider-separator{width:100%;min-height:var(--divider-pattern-height);-webkit-mask-size:var(--divider-pattern-size) 100%;mask-size:var(--divider-pattern-size) 100%;-webkit-mask-repeat:var(--divider-pattern-repeat);mask-repeat:var(--divider-pattern-repeat);background-color:var(--divider-color);-webkit-mask-image:var(--divider-pattern-url);mask-image:var(--divider-pattern-url)}.elementor-widget-divider--no-spacing{--divider-pattern-size:auto}.elementor-widget-divider--bg-round{--divider-pattern-repeat:round}.rtl .elementor-widget-divider .elementor-divider__text{direction:rtl}.e-con-inner>.elementor-widget-divider,.e-con>.elementor-widget-divider{width:var(--container-widget-width,100%);--flex-grow:var(--container-widget-flex-grow)}<\/style>\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9adf215 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"9adf215\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.16.0 - 20-09-2023 *\/\n.elementor-heading-title{padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title[class*=elementor-size-]>a{color:inherit;font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-small{font-size:15px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-medium{font-size:19px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-large{font-size:29px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-xl{font-size:39px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-xxl{font-size:59px}<\/style><h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Molinari<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-fac39ee elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"fac39ee\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-daa0aae\" data-id=\"daa0aae\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b4d9d71 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"b4d9d71\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.16.0 - 20-09-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<a class=\"boton-volver\" href=\"javascript:history.back()\">\u2aa1 Back<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-99180d5 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"99180d5\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1cf27c4\" data-id=\"1cf27c4\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-63d4f60 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"63d4f60\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Trust the Evidence: Two Deference Principles for Imprecise Probabilities<\/h1>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-56b42ba elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"56b42ba\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Our intuition that rational agents should value the evidence can be captured by a well-known theorem due to I. J. Good. However, Good's theorem fails when agents have imprecise credences, raising the worry that agents with imprecise credences don't value the evidence. This essay shows a different way to capture our starting intuition, as the claim that rational agents defer to their informed selves. I introduce and motivate two deference principles for imprecise probabilities, and show that rational imprecise agents defer to their informed selves according to these principles. This shows a sense in which imprecise agents value the evidence. I end by comparing the deference principles introduced here with an alternative from the literature.<\/span>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-13fb9ee elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"13fb9ee\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-902a2fd\" data-id=\"902a2fd\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-34ae954 oew-align-center elementor-widget elementor-widget-oew-button-effects\" data-id=\"34ae954\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"oew-button-effects.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\r\n\r\n\t\t<div class=\"oew-button oew-btn-effect-30\">\r\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/isipta23.sipta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/molinari23a.pdf\" class=\"oew-link\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\r\n\t\t\t\t<span>PAPER<\/span>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-de07492\" data-id=\"de07492\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-07a7db6 oew-align-center elementor-widget elementor-widget-oew-button-effects\" data-id=\"07a7db6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"oew-button-effects.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\r\n\r\n\t\t<div class=\"oew-button oew-btn-effect-30\">\r\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/isipta23.sipta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/2Molinari.pdf\" class=\"oew-link\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\r\n\t\t\t\t<span>PRESENTATION<\/span>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-368723d\" data-id=\"368723d\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bc48ca3 oew-align-center elementor-widget elementor-widget-oew-button-effects\" data-id=\"bc48ca3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"oew-button-effects.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\r\n\r\n\t\t<div class=\"oew-button oew-btn-effect-30\">\r\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/isipta23.sipta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/molinari-poster.pdf\" class=\"oew-link\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\r\n\t\t\t\t<span>POSTER<\/span>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-dd2b88d elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"dd2b88d\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-e2b8390\" data-id=\"e2b8390\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e9aa4b4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e9aa4b4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"boton-volver\" href=\"javascript:history.back()\">\u2aa1 Back<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Molinari \u2aa1 Back Trust the Evidence: Two Deference Principles for Imprecise Probabilities Our intuition that rational agents should value the evidence can be captured by a well-known theorem due to I. J. Good. However, Good&#8217;s theorem fails when agents have imprecise credences, raising the worry that agents with imprecise credences don&#8217;t value the evidence. This [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":3821,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"elementor_header_footer","meta":{"footnotes":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Long Molinari - ISIPTA 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/isipta23.sipta.org\/accepted-papers\/long-molinari\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Long Molinari - ISIPTA 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Molinari \u2aa1 Back Trust the Evidence: Two Deference Principles for Imprecise Probabilities Our intuition that rational agents should value the evidence can be captured by a well-known theorem due to I. J. Good. However, Good&#8217;s theorem fails when agents have imprecise credences, raising the worry that agents with imprecise credences don&#8217;t value the evidence. 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